Lesson 1.3: The "Weird" Scaling Property (√Δt)

Welcome to Lesson 1.3! In our last lesson, we defined our 'perfect' model of randomness, Brownian Motion (Wt). We learned its 4 rules, and the most important one was Rule #4.

WtWsN(0,ts)W_t - W_s \sim N(0, t-s)

This rule is a "recipe" that says the random change in our path (WtWsW_t - W_s) follows a bell curve centered at 0, with a Variance equal to the time that has passed (tst-s).

Now, we are going to combine this rule with what we learned in Module 0 (Lesson 0.2) about Standard Deviation. This combination will lead us to the "weird" scaling property that makes stochastic calculus a completely new subject. This is the first major "wow" moment of our course.

The Derivation: Finding the "Typical Size" of a Random Step

Let's ask a simple question: What is the "typical size" of one tiny, random step?

  1. Our Step: We'll look at a tiny, "infinitesimal" step in time. We'll call its duration Δt\Delta t (e.g., Δt=0.01\Delta t = 0.01 seconds).
  2. Our Random Change: The random change in our path WtW_t during this time is ΔW\Delta W (e.g., ΔW=W0.01W0\Delta W = W_{0.01} - W_0).
  3. Apply Rule #4: Let's plug our tiny step into the "recipe" from Rule #4. With s=0s = 0 and t=Δtt = \Delta t, the rule tells us the distribution for our tiny step ΔW\Delta W is:
    ΔWN(0,Δt)\Delta W \sim N(0, \Delta t)
  4. Connect to Module 0: We learned that the notation N(μ,σ2)N(\mu, \sigma^2) means: Mean (μ\mu) = 0 and Variance (σ2\sigma^2) = Δt\Delta t.
  5. The "Wow" Moment: We learned that the "intuitive" or "typical" size of a random outcome is its Standard Deviation (σ\sigma). We also learned the iron-clad relationship:
    Standard Deviation=Variance\text{Standard Deviation} = \sqrt{\text{Variance}}

Let's plug in our Variance from Step 4:

Standard Deviation of ΔW=Δt\text{Standard Deviation of } \Delta W = \sqrt{\Delta t}

The "Weird" Scaling Property

In the "Normal World" of predictable calculus, a small change Δf\Delta f is proportional to Δt\Delta t. But in our new "Random World," the "typical size" of the change ΔW\Delta W is proportional to Δt\sqrt{\Delta t}.

The "Velocity" of a Random Path

This scaling rule is the mathematical proof for why normal calculus fails. In normal calculus, a derivative (or "velocity") is found by calculating Change in PositionChange in Time\frac{\text{Change in Position}}{\text{Change in Time}}, or ΔfΔt\frac{\Delta f}{\Delta t}.

In the Random World, the "Typical Velocity" is Typical ΔWΔt\approx \frac{\text{Typical } \Delta W}{\Delta t}. Let's plug in our new scaling rule:

Typical VelocityΔtΔt=1Δt\text{Typical Velocity} \approx \frac{\sqrt{\Delta t}}{\Delta t} = \frac{1}{\sqrt{\Delta t}}

As our time step Δt\Delta t gets infinitely small (Δt0\Delta t \to 0), the denominator Δt\sqrt{\Delta t} goes to 0, which means the whole fraction 1Δt\frac{1}{\sqrt{\Delta t}} goes to infinity. The instantaneous velocity is infinite.

An Intuitive Analogy: The Drunkard's Walk

Why the Square Root?

Think of a simple "random walk" with coin flips. A drunkard starts at a lamppost (position 0) and every second, flips a coin. Heads: one step Right (+1). Tails: one step Left (-1).

The key is that the positive and negative steps are constantly canceling each other out. This self-cancellation is why the distance doesn't grow linearly with time.

By calculating the average of the squared positions (the variance) at each time step, we can prove this relationship: Variance=t\text{Variance} = t. Therefore, the Standard Deviation (the "typical" distance) must be Variance=t\sqrt{\text{Variance}} = \sqrt{t}.

  • After 100 steps (time t=100t=100), the "typical" distance is 100=10\sqrt{100} = 10 steps.
  • After 10,000 steps (time t=10,000t=10,000), the "typical" distance is 10,000=100\sqrt{10,000} = 100 steps.
Why This Matters for Finance

    This t\sqrt{t} rule is the single most important concept for pricing options.

    • It Explains "Time Value": The "typical" random move a stock can make in 1 year (1\sqrt{1}) is much larger than in 1 week (1/52\sqrt{1/52}). More time equals a much wider range of possible outcomes.
    • It Defines Volatility: In finance, we model a stock's random change as proportional to σΔt\sigma \sqrt{\Delta t}. Volatility (σ\sigma) is the factor that converts abstract time\sqrt{\text{time}} randomness into dollar-denominated risk.

Up Next: A Model for Stocks (Geometric Brownian Motion)